Open data · Trade · 2000–2025

Canada’s exporters and the U.S. market

How dependent are Canadian exporting firms on the United States, which firms and provinces are most exposed, and how diversified are they? An analysis of a quarter-century of Statistics Canada data on every goods-exporting business.

By Shadi RahimfallahSource: Statistics Canada, Trade by Exporter CharacteristicsCoverage: all goods-exporting businessesReference years 2000–2025
84.7%of exporting enterprises sold goods to the U.S. in 2025
65.2%sold only to the U.S., up from a low of 55.9% in 2010
71.9%of goods export value went to the U.S. in 2025
97.3%of exporters are small or medium-sized, but they ship 41.1% of the value

01Dependence fell for a decade, then came back

In 2000, about three in four Canadian exporters (75.6%) sold only to the United States. That share fell steadily to a low of 55.9% in 2010 as firms added overseas markets, and stayed near 58% through 2019. Since 2020 the trend has reversed: by 2025, 65.2% of exporters again relied on the U.S. alone, and 84.7% sold at least some goods there.

Figure 1

Share of exporting enterprises selling to the United States

Percent of all goods-exporting enterprises, 2000–2025.

The number of exporters tells a similar story. It fell from 48,657 in 2000 to a low of 40,611 in 2010, and has since recovered to 47,948. Almost all of the post-2020 rebound came from firms that sell only to the U.S.

Figure 2

Exporting enterprises by type of market

Number of enterprises, 2000–2025.

02Small exporters are the most exposed

The smaller the firm, the more likely it sells only to the United States. About two-thirds of exporters with fewer than 50 employees depend on the U.S. alone, against about half of large enterprises, which are far more likely to serve both the U.S. and other markets.

Figure 3

Market reach by enterprise size, 2025

Percent of exporting enterprises in each employment-size class.

Small and medium-sized enterprises make up 97.3% of exporters but only 41.1% of export value. A small number of large enterprises ship most of the goods.

Figure 4

Share of exporters and of export value by enterprise size, 2025

Percent of all exporting enterprises and of total goods export value.

03Manitoba, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick and P.E.I. are the most U.S.-oriented

In every province, most exporting establishments sell to the United States. The share is highest in Manitoba, New Brunswick, Saskatchewan and Prince Edward Island, and lowest in Newfoundland and Labrador, Quebec and British Columbia. Across Canada, the share in 2025 (85.7%) is a little below its 2000 level (89.1%) after a dip in the 2010s.

Figure 5

Exporting establishments selling to the U.S., by province

Percent of exporting establishments in each province; 2025 (bar) and 2000 (dot). The dashed line is Canada in 2025.

04After the U.S., the next markets are far smaller

The United States receives 71.9% of goods export value and is a market for 85.7% of exporting establishments. The next destinations — the United Kingdom, China, Australia, Germany and France — each reach only a few percent of exporters. The U.K. and China stand out for value; Australia and the U.A.E. attract many exporters but little value.

Figure 6

Top export destinations, 2025

Share of exporting establishments selling to each country, and share of total goods export value. An establishment can sell to several countries.

05Most exporters sell to a single country

Three in four exporters (74.7%) sell to only one foreign country, usually the United States. Together they account for just 17.5% of export value. The few firms that reach six or more markets carry most of the value.

Figure 7

Exporters and export value by number of partner countries, 2025

Percent of exporting enterprises and of total goods export value.

06A hundred firms ship most of Canada’s goods

Export value is highly concentrated. The ten largest exporting enterprises account for about a quarter of goods exports (24.3% in 2025) and the top 100 for 59.5%. These shares have stayed within a narrow range for 25 years, while total nominal export value rose from $372 billion to $713 billion.

Figure 8

Share of export value held by the largest exporters

Percent of total goods export value, 2000–2025.

Figure 9

Total value of goods exports

Billions of current dollars (not adjusted for inflation), 2000–2025.

Why it matters. Canada’s export base combines a long tail of small, U.S.-only exporters with a small core of large, diversified firms. U.S. trade policy therefore reaches tens of thousands of small businesses directly, even though most export value is concentrated in a few hundred enterprises.

07Data and method